Category: Recession

Why the next US recession may be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan

Tesla factory workers got a pay bump in January. Getty/David Butow Fears of an economic recession may have to be pushed back to 2025, according to JPMorgan. US factory activity expanded in March for the first time since September 2022.  JPMorgan said the rebound in manufacturing activity bodes well for continued economic resilience. The long-awaited recession that many economists and investors have been fearing may…

If you want a preview of China’s economic collapse, just look at Japan

Japan’s recent success stems from a decadeslong effort to reboot the economy. That will be nearly impossible for Beijing to re-create. Tyler Le/BI Japan’s long-comatose economy is finally showing proof of life. After a catastrophic real-estate implosion in the early 1990s, the country’s economy spent the next three decades shrinking. Households and businesses had to spend their money paying off debt, which prevented them from…

Undocumented immigrants are boosting the labor market and helping the US avoid recession, experts say

Frederic J. Brown/AFP via Getty Images Undocumented immigration has boosted the labor market, helping steer the US away from a recession, some experts say. A study from the Brookings Institution argued that total immigration numbers are higher than other major agencies estimate due to undercounting of undocumented individuals. Morgan Stanley’s chief US economist has also recently cited undocumented immigration as a positive labor-market force. Here’s…

Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio admit they got warnings on US economy wrong —...

Chase CEO Jamie Dimon and billionaire hedge fund founder Ray Dalio have predicted a US recession that has yet to be seen. Eugene Gologursky/Fast Company and Win McNamee/Getty Images High-profile investors and billionaires warned in the past few years that a recession was imminent. But the US economy is performing better than expected, with strong job reports and lower inflation. Jamie Dimon and Ray Dalio…

A surprise recession could strike after an unexpected jump in the unemployment rate, economist says

The US economy is showing resilience, but experts warn a recession is still on the table. Robert Alexander / Getty An unexpected rise in the unemployment rate suggests a surprise recession could hit the US economy, according to David Rosenberg. The unemployment rate is now 0.5 percentage points above its cycle low to 3.9%, which Rosenberg says is a worrying sign. “It messes up the…

3 rate cuts in 2024 would be a ‘surprise,’ former Fed president Thomas Hoenig says

US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference in Washington, DC, on March 22, 2023. Liu Jie/Xinhua via Getty Images Former Fed president Thomas Hoenig said he’d be surprised if officials deliver three rate cuts in 2024.  One or two is more likely amid stubborn inflation and a strong economy.  A preemptive cut to avert a recession probably isn’t in the cards.  The…

The epic stock rally will end badly, the AI bubble will burst, and the economy will sink, warns elite investor...

Jeremy Grantham. Boston Globe/Getty Images Jeremy Grantham warned US stocks and the economy are headed for trouble. The elite investor and market historian said the AI frenzy is a bubble that’s bound to burst. Grantham predicted a decade of disappointment for stocks and flagged several long-term threats. Jeremy Grantham says US stocks are massively overvalued and poised to tumble, the AI craze is a bubble…

Stocks will drop, soaring US debt is worrying — and Elon Musk is overpaid, says elite investor Leon Cooperman

Leon Cooperman. Rick Wilking/Reuters Leon Cooperman expects stocks to slide this year, and is worried about soaring national debt. Stocks are already pricing in strong earnings and an improving economic outlook, he said. The billionaire investor thinks Tesla CEO Elon Musk, the world’s richest person, is overpaid. Stocks look expensive and are likely to drop this year, the national debt is a ticking time bomb,…

Jerome Powell rang the alarm on debt, saying it shouldn’t be dumped on future generations

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell. Yuri Gripas/Reuters The US government is spending at an unsustainable rate, Jerome Powell said. The Federal Reserve chair said he was worried future generations would be stuck with the bill. Powell urgently called for more careful and responsible budgeting. America is racking up dangerous amounts of debt because of its excessive spending, and future generations are likely to suffer the…

The US economy ended 2023 with a bang

People shopping at the Glendale Galleria in California. Mario Tama/Getty Images Real GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.3% in the fourth quarter. That’s above the forecast of 2.0%. After real GDP surged 4.9% in the third quarter, the latest point suggests still strong growth. The US economy was still growing at a robust pace in the last quarter of 2023 but slowed down…